Nathan Tyree: Time to Go

---

Hillary is almost the only person left unable to see and understand what has now become inevitable. Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee. His lead is now nearly insurmountable and will only grow. Obama has taken eleven contests in a row and all by incredible margins. Despite what Hillary's sycophants in the media would like you to believe, the next set of primaries and caucuses do not look good for her.

Texas is the biggest jewel left, and at this point the best case scenario for Hillary has her reaching a tie in that state. Her hopes are going to be dashed there. The most likely outcome is that Obama takes a net delegate gain between six and ten from the lone star state.

Ohio is HRC's other "firewall" state. Her camp likes to point at her sizable lead in the polls there. What they aren't talking about is Wisconsin, which is demographically almost identical to Ohio. We saw a pattern there that had already been played out all over the country: Hillary led by double digits in the polls until a few days before the election, then that lead vanishes and it looks like a tie. Finally, people actually go to the polls and Obama pulls ten to twenty points higher than the pre-voting opinion polls suggested. The Clinton camp knows that Ohio is likely to turn out much the way Wisconsin did. Even if Hillary can somehow pull a ten point victory there, it won't give her the number of delegates she needs to be competitive again.

So what does that leave? Wyoming goes for Obama. Mississippi falls easily into the O category. Vermont and Rhode Island may well be tight, but Obama is likely to take at least one of them. Then comes Pennsylvania. It's huge, swollen with delegates. But by then what difference could it make? If Hillary some how took 100% of Pennsylvania's delegates she would still be dreadfully far behind.

The super delegates have already started defecting to Obama. They can see the wave coming and would rather be part of it than crushed beneath it. Hillary’s estimated lead among super delegates has shrunk from 100 to 40 in the last few weeks. She is arguing loudly that the phony delegates from MI and FL must be seated (despite the fact that even with them she would be left very far behind in the count). She’s launched sites like delegate hub to try to hornswogle the public. Her camp may even be out there trying to convince pledged delegates to defect from Obama to her. She’s going negative (even trying to tie Obama to the Weather Underground despite the fact that she is the one with ties to that organization).

It’s all over Hillary. Now is the time to gracefully bow out and save your reputation and your ability to function as a Senator.

Comments (0)

Nathan Tyree: Gilliam

---

Gilliam's next film will not be stopped by death of Heath Ledger:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/18/heath-ledger-replaced-by-_n_87141.html

Comments (1)

Nathan Tyree: The Spoiler

---

Change and Experience

Is this election a choice between experience and change, between solutions and rhetoric? That is certainly the spin that Hillary's camp wants us to buy. They would have us believe that Hillary is the elder stateswoman offering real ideas against an inexperienced whelp who just speaks well. I think it's a load of crap.

Obama has a short tenure as a U.S. Senator preceded by time as a state senator in a major state. That doesn't seem like a lot of experience, but we might ask exactly how much of the big E Hillary has? Well, she has a short tenure as a U.S. Senator. That is the only elected office she has held. Hillary seems to want people to think that being married to a governor makes you a governor or that being married to a president makes you presidential. That just isn't the truth. On balance, neither of them have much in way of experience.

How about change? For twenty-eight years there has been a Bush or Clinton in the White House. Would another four years of Clinton really count as change?

So, maybe it’s a choice between ideas or oratory? What ideas, or solutions does Hillary offer that are substantially different than those offered by Obama? It isn’t easy to find them, but there are two major differences between the two of them: Her healthcare plan is a gift to the big insurance companies, while his is an actual step in the right direction. The other difference is that his ideas on the war (good ideas) are based on principle and have remained consistent. Hillary, on the other hand, has drifted with popular opinion. She was for the war when it was popular and against it when the public opinion tide turned.

Hillary the Spoiler

The math does not look good for Hillary. Obama has a commanding lead now, which will grow on Tuesday as he picks up wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii. The Texas breakdown does not look good for the Hillary camp, either. She’s ahead in the polls there, but a close looks at the delegate break down by district reveals that even if Hillary wins the most votes, Obama is going to take the most Delegates from the Lone Star State. That leaves Ohio and Pennsylvania as her last chance to stop the wave. She needs to pull better than 65% in both of those states to gain a tie in delegates. I don’t think that can be done at this point. Obama is surging among blue collar workers and union members. Ohio is going to be very close and I suspect that Obama will actually take a slim majority there.

As it stands now, to win the nomination, Hillary has to have the “delegates” from Michigan and Florida seated at the convention. It would take the proverbial back room deal to get it done, but it isn’t outside the range of possibilities.

Before I discuss what the result of that would be let me provide a little background on the MI FL debacle. Back in 2006 the national party set the guidelines for scheduling of primaries and caucuses. Both Michigan and Florida applied to step outside the guidelines and hold their contests early. The party told those states ‘no’ and added that if they broke the rules they would be stripped of their delegates (there is precedent for this, it happened to Delaware several years ago). Both states decided that they would rather go early than be counted. Those states CHOSE to disenfranchise themselves.

All of the candidates agreed not to compete in those states. Obama, Edwards and Richardson took their names off the ballot in Michigan. Hillary did not. Despite the agreement Hillary (and only Hillary) campaigned in Florida. Obviously she “won” in those states. In Michigan, as mentioned, she was the only candidate on the ballot. In Florida, she was the only one trying.

Now she wants those delegates counted. She needs them to win.

If Hillary prevails and gets the nomination because two states that have not had official primaries (and where she was the only candidate) get to choose, it will tear the party apart. The acrimony that will ensue will make 1968 look like a weekend is Disneyland. A lot of Democrats will rebel. On election day they will stay home or vote green. That’s what I will do. If Hillary should pull ahead in delegates and win by playing fair then in the general election I will hold my nose and pull the lever for her. If she gets it by cheating, then I will not. Fuck, I might even vote for the Manchurian candidate out of protest.

Prediction

If MI and FL are seated and counted giving Hillary the nomination, then John Manchurian Candidate McCain will be president and he can have his 100 year war. Maybe that’s why McCain operatives have been instructing people to call radio shows and respond to blog posts with the call to “re-enfranchise” MI and FL.


Who Cares?


For anyone reading this from a state that has yet to vote (PA, for instance) I pose the following question: Which of the Democratic candidates cares about every state? Obama has actively campaigned in every state. He has run a fifty state campaign and fought hard for every vote, even if they were in what Hillary calls “insignificant” states. On Super Tuesday she worried only about New York, California, New Jersey and Arkansas. The other states didn’t count, she thought. Even now she has her surrogates out saying that those twenty states Obama has won in don’t count, really, because other than Illinois they aren’t significant.

Is your state significant? Is your vote? Obama thinks so.


Here ends today’s political rhetoric.

Comments (3)

Nathan Tyree: Hillary

---

Hillary Clinton is in very bad shape. So bad, in fact, that this may well be the beginning of the end for her campaign. She’s down in everything that counts: Out of money, lacking in the perception of momentum, behind in delegates, behind in states won, behind in votes won, and losing favor with the so called “super delegates”. She’s made a last minute change in her campaign staff and her strategy, which can only be viewed as a sign of weakness. She has started going negative and hostile herself, instead of leaving that sort of thing to her representatives, which must also be viewed as a sign of weakness. The political press is reporting that Super Delegates that had once stated a preference for her are changing their minds. And, worst of all, she is making the claim that Michigan (where she was the only candidate on the ballot) and Florida (where she was the only candidate to break the pledge not to campaign)should be counted. It’s a bit like being a basketball team that is losing because the other team makes a lot of three pointers and then claiming that those shots from beyond the three point line should only count as two points anyway. You can’t change the rules midway through the game because you’re losing.

Today is going to go quite well for Obama.

Comments (0)

Nathan Tyree: Huff

---

There is an interesting piece in Huffington Post about Hillary and Super Delegates : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/11/some-top-clinton-backers-_n_86028.html

Comments (3)