Nathan Tyree: Even the Right is getting Wise

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It seems that even conservatives have gotten smart when it comes to the Prick in Chief.

American Conservative magazine (yes, they are real conservatives- the mags pages are filled with people like Pat Buchanan and P.J. O'Rourke) has endorsed John Kerry for president.

American Conservative

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Nathan Tyree: What Would Jesus Bomb?

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Here's some shit to make your skin crawl.

George W. Christ

Mood: creeped out
Music: Shout at the Devil and or Sympathy for the Devil

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Nathan Tyree: President Kerry

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I'm predicting it today, for the record.

Kerry will take:

CA 55
NY 31
FL 27
OH 20
OR 7
WA 11
IL 21
WI 10
MN 10
MI 17
PA 21
NM 5
MD 10
NJ 15
MA 12
ME 4
And that is the ball game- those states give him 275 electoral votes. Five more than he needs to win. Kerry sweeps New England, and the west coast. He also takes bits of the rust belt. He may take tennesee, but I don't think so. He could also take VA, but it's really too close to call. I also predict that MO will be closer than people think.


So, how did I come to this conclusion? By looking at state by state polling data and using regression analysis. I've also factored in historical trends.

Two important factors that will effect the election (but that I did not factor into my computations) are the likelihood of a larger than expected turnout (which will favor Kerry- high turnout is always bad for incumbents) and the fact that polling data ussed this year does not include young, tech savy liberals (who are likely Kerry voters).

Why are young liberals like myself not being polled? Because we use Cell phones only. Pollsters do not call people who only use cell phones (actually they can't, it's a federal law).

Another fact worth mentioning (although it also did not factor into my prediction) is that no incumbent president since WWII has won reelection with an approval rating below 53%. W's current approval rating: 44%


Mood: Happy
Music: Happy Days are here again
Browsing: This is why we will win

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Nathan Tyree: College

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I've been thinking about college. Actually, I've been thinking about the only college that really matters at the moment: The Electoral College.
As of today, the electoral count stands at:
Kerry: 257
Bush: 247
270 are needed to win.
Right now, with the election looming, it's tight. We are at a way station on the road to the future. In one direction lies George W Bush, John Ashcroft, and a Corpro-Fascist Empire. In the other lies Kerry and Edwards and a chance.

It's never been more important to be involved than it is right now.

Vote. Get involved. Write letters; send emails; stump; talk to people. If you know someone in a key battleground state (e.g. Florida, Iowa, Missouri) talk to them. Plead with them. Do whatever it takes.

Your grandchildren will thank you.

That is all.

Mood: Not really enjoying the year 1984 as much as I thought I would
Browsing: College

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Nathan Tyree: Punkcheese

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Yup.

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