Nathan Tyree: Notes From the Underground
Several notes:
After Super Tuesday Obama is ahead in delegates. CNN will tell you that Clinton has more delegates, but that is because they are attempting to “estimate†super delegates. This isn’t really fair, since none of the super delegates are actually pledged yet. Still, even with CNN’s guess work, Hillary only comes out slightly ahead. Over the next several days we will be seeing a number of contests that strongly favor Obama. He is likely to take strong majorities in all four states that go to the polls this weekend, which should give him the lead (or a bigger lead if we only count real numbers and not those generated by wishful thinking on the part of the establishment).
Missouri confuses the news outlets. Around 10pm on Tuesday, PBS called Missouri for Clinton. I turned to Sarah and said “Too early. St. Louis decides it.†The next morning Obama had won. The same thing happened two years ago. Around 9 my parents called upset that Talent was winning the senate seat in Mo. I told them not to worry, St. Louis hadn’t reported in yet. We all know how Talent ended up in that race.
How things get spun is fascinating. A few weeks ago Hillary was up 25-30 points in Massachusetts. On election night she won by 15. All three networks talked like she had somehow routed Obama in that state. They made it sound like she was the one that had come from behind. Illinois is another example of the media’s lust for Hillary. One network (can’t remember which, I was watching 4 of them) kept insisting that she had upset Obama there by being truly competitive and taking 45-47% of the votes, Of course, that wasn’t a real number. She got almost 30% there, just as expected. Compare that to her home state of New York, where Obama got 40% of the vote. No one was calling that an upset.
If you haven’t seen them, here are the percentages state by state:
State Clinton Obama
Idaho 17% 80%
Kansas 26% 74%
Alaska 25% 74%
Colorado 32% 67%
Minnesota 32% 67%
Georgia 31% 66%
Illinois 33% 64%
North Dakota* 37% 61%
Utah 39% 57%
Alabama 42% 56%
Delaware 42% 53%
Connecticut 47% 51%
Missouri 48% 49%
New Mexico 48% 49%
New Jersey 54% 44%
Arizona 51% 42%
Massachusetts 56% 41%
Tennessee 54% 41%
California 53% 41%
New York 57% 40%
Oklahoma 55% 31%
Arkansas 69% 27%
Update: Ronmey is out!
Several notes:
After Super Tuesday Obama is ahead in delegates. CNN will tell you that Clinton has more delegates, but that is because they are attempting to “estimate†super delegates. This isn’t really fair, since none of the super delegates are actually pledged yet. Still, even with CNN’s guess work, Hillary only comes out slightly ahead. Over the next several days we will be seeing a number of contests that strongly favor Obama. He is likely to take strong majorities in all four states that go to the polls this weekend, which should give him the lead (or a bigger lead if we only count real numbers and not those generated by wishful thinking on the part of the establishment).
Missouri confuses the news outlets. Around 10pm on Tuesday, PBS called Missouri for Clinton. I turned to Sarah and said “Too early. St. Louis decides it.†The next morning Obama had won. The same thing happened two years ago. Around 9 my parents called upset that Talent was winning the senate seat in Mo. I told them not to worry, St. Louis hadn’t reported in yet. We all know how Talent ended up in that race.
How things get spun is fascinating. A few weeks ago Hillary was up 25-30 points in Massachusetts. On election night she won by 15. All three networks talked like she had somehow routed Obama in that state. They made it sound like she was the one that had come from behind. Illinois is another example of the media’s lust for Hillary. One network (can’t remember which, I was watching 4 of them) kept insisting that she had upset Obama there by being truly competitive and taking 45-47% of the votes, Of course, that wasn’t a real number. She got almost 30% there, just as expected. Compare that to her home state of New York, where Obama got 40% of the vote. No one was calling that an upset.
If you haven’t seen them, here are the percentages state by state:
State Clinton Obama
Idaho 17% 80%
Kansas 26% 74%
Alaska 25% 74%
Colorado 32% 67%
Minnesota 32% 67%
Georgia 31% 66%
Illinois 33% 64%
North Dakota* 37% 61%
Utah 39% 57%
Alabama 42% 56%
Delaware 42% 53%
Connecticut 47% 51%
Missouri 48% 49%
New Mexico 48% 49%
New Jersey 54% 44%
Arizona 51% 42%
Massachusetts 56% 41%
Tennessee 54% 41%
California 53% 41%
New York 57% 40%
Oklahoma 55% 31%
Arkansas 69% 27%
Update: Ronmey is out!
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The media needs to learn to report the numbers, and not try to interpret them.