Nathan Tyree: The Spoiler
Change and Experience
Is this election a choice between experience and change, between solutions and rhetoric? That is certainly the spin that Hillary's camp wants us to buy. They would have us believe that Hillary is the elder stateswoman offering real ideas against an inexperienced whelp who just speaks well. I think it's a load of crap.
Obama has a short tenure as a U.S. Senator preceded by time as a state senator in a major state. That doesn't seem like a lot of experience, but we might ask exactly how much of the big E Hillary has? Well, she has a short tenure as a U.S. Senator. That is the only elected office she has held. Hillary seems to want people to think that being married to a governor makes you a governor or that being married to a president makes you presidential. That just isn't the truth. On balance, neither of them have much in way of experience.
How about change? For twenty-eight years there has been a Bush or Clinton in the White House. Would another four years of Clinton really count as change?
So, maybe it’s a choice between ideas or oratory? What ideas, or solutions does Hillary offer that are substantially different than those offered by Obama? It isn’t easy to find them, but there are two major differences between the two of them: Her healthcare plan is a gift to the big insurance companies, while his is an actual step in the right direction. The other difference is that his ideas on the war (good ideas) are based on principle and have remained consistent. Hillary, on the other hand, has drifted with popular opinion. She was for the war when it was popular and against it when the public opinion tide turned.
Hillary the Spoiler
The math does not look good for Hillary. Obama has a commanding lead now, which will grow on Tuesday as he picks up wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii. The Texas breakdown does not look good for the Hillary camp, either. She’s ahead in the polls there, but a close looks at the delegate break down by district reveals that even if Hillary wins the most votes, Obama is going to take the most Delegates from the Lone Star State. That leaves Ohio and Pennsylvania as her last chance to stop the wave. She needs to pull better than 65% in both of those states to gain a tie in delegates. I don’t think that can be done at this point. Obama is surging among blue collar workers and union members. Ohio is going to be very close and I suspect that Obama will actually take a slim majority there.
As it stands now, to win the nomination, Hillary has to have the “delegates†from Michigan and Florida seated at the convention. It would take the proverbial back room deal to get it done, but it isn’t outside the range of possibilities.
Before I discuss what the result of that would be let me provide a little background on the MI FL debacle. Back in 2006 the national party set the guidelines for scheduling of primaries and caucuses. Both Michigan and Florida applied to step outside the guidelines and hold their contests early. The party told those states ‘no’ and added that if they broke the rules they would be stripped of their delegates (there is precedent for this, it happened to Delaware several years ago). Both states decided that they would rather go early than be counted. Those states CHOSE to disenfranchise themselves.
All of the candidates agreed not to compete in those states. Obama, Edwards and Richardson took their names off the ballot in Michigan. Hillary did not. Despite the agreement Hillary (and only Hillary) campaigned in Florida. Obviously she “won†in those states. In Michigan, as mentioned, she was the only candidate on the ballot. In Florida, she was the only one trying.
Now she wants those delegates counted. She needs them to win.
If Hillary prevails and gets the nomination because two states that have not had official primaries (and where she was the only candidate) get to choose, it will tear the party apart. The acrimony that will ensue will make 1968 look like a weekend is Disneyland. A lot of Democrats will rebel. On election day they will stay home or vote green. That’s what I will do. If Hillary should pull ahead in delegates and win by playing fair then in the general election I will hold my nose and pull the lever for her. If she gets it by cheating, then I will not. Fuck, I might even vote for the Manchurian candidate out of protest.
Prediction
If MI and FL are seated and counted giving Hillary the nomination, then John Manchurian Candidate McCain will be president and he can have his 100 year war. Maybe that’s why McCain operatives have been instructing people to call radio shows and respond to blog posts with the call to “re-enfranchise†MI and FL.
Who Cares?
For anyone reading this from a state that has yet to vote (PA, for instance) I pose the following question: Which of the Democratic candidates cares about every state? Obama has actively campaigned in every state. He has run a fifty state campaign and fought hard for every vote, even if they were in what Hillary calls “insignificant†states. On Super Tuesday she worried only about New York, California, New Jersey and Arkansas. The other states didn’t count, she thought. Even now she has her surrogates out saying that those twenty states Obama has won in don’t count, really, because other than Illinois they aren’t significant.
Is your state significant? Is your vote? Obama thinks so.
Here ends today’s political rhetoric.
Change and Experience
Is this election a choice between experience and change, between solutions and rhetoric? That is certainly the spin that Hillary's camp wants us to buy. They would have us believe that Hillary is the elder stateswoman offering real ideas against an inexperienced whelp who just speaks well. I think it's a load of crap.
Obama has a short tenure as a U.S. Senator preceded by time as a state senator in a major state. That doesn't seem like a lot of experience, but we might ask exactly how much of the big E Hillary has? Well, she has a short tenure as a U.S. Senator. That is the only elected office she has held. Hillary seems to want people to think that being married to a governor makes you a governor or that being married to a president makes you presidential. That just isn't the truth. On balance, neither of them have much in way of experience.
How about change? For twenty-eight years there has been a Bush or Clinton in the White House. Would another four years of Clinton really count as change?
So, maybe it’s a choice between ideas or oratory? What ideas, or solutions does Hillary offer that are substantially different than those offered by Obama? It isn’t easy to find them, but there are two major differences between the two of them: Her healthcare plan is a gift to the big insurance companies, while his is an actual step in the right direction. The other difference is that his ideas on the war (good ideas) are based on principle and have remained consistent. Hillary, on the other hand, has drifted with popular opinion. She was for the war when it was popular and against it when the public opinion tide turned.
Hillary the Spoiler
The math does not look good for Hillary. Obama has a commanding lead now, which will grow on Tuesday as he picks up wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii. The Texas breakdown does not look good for the Hillary camp, either. She’s ahead in the polls there, but a close looks at the delegate break down by district reveals that even if Hillary wins the most votes, Obama is going to take the most Delegates from the Lone Star State. That leaves Ohio and Pennsylvania as her last chance to stop the wave. She needs to pull better than 65% in both of those states to gain a tie in delegates. I don’t think that can be done at this point. Obama is surging among blue collar workers and union members. Ohio is going to be very close and I suspect that Obama will actually take a slim majority there.
As it stands now, to win the nomination, Hillary has to have the “delegates†from Michigan and Florida seated at the convention. It would take the proverbial back room deal to get it done, but it isn’t outside the range of possibilities.
Before I discuss what the result of that would be let me provide a little background on the MI FL debacle. Back in 2006 the national party set the guidelines for scheduling of primaries and caucuses. Both Michigan and Florida applied to step outside the guidelines and hold their contests early. The party told those states ‘no’ and added that if they broke the rules they would be stripped of their delegates (there is precedent for this, it happened to Delaware several years ago). Both states decided that they would rather go early than be counted. Those states CHOSE to disenfranchise themselves.
All of the candidates agreed not to compete in those states. Obama, Edwards and Richardson took their names off the ballot in Michigan. Hillary did not. Despite the agreement Hillary (and only Hillary) campaigned in Florida. Obviously she “won†in those states. In Michigan, as mentioned, she was the only candidate on the ballot. In Florida, she was the only one trying.
Now she wants those delegates counted. She needs them to win.
If Hillary prevails and gets the nomination because two states that have not had official primaries (and where she was the only candidate) get to choose, it will tear the party apart. The acrimony that will ensue will make 1968 look like a weekend is Disneyland. A lot of Democrats will rebel. On election day they will stay home or vote green. That’s what I will do. If Hillary should pull ahead in delegates and win by playing fair then in the general election I will hold my nose and pull the lever for her. If she gets it by cheating, then I will not. Fuck, I might even vote for the Manchurian candidate out of protest.
Prediction
If MI and FL are seated and counted giving Hillary the nomination, then John Manchurian Candidate McCain will be president and he can have his 100 year war. Maybe that’s why McCain operatives have been instructing people to call radio shows and respond to blog posts with the call to “re-enfranchise†MI and FL.
Who Cares?
For anyone reading this from a state that has yet to vote (PA, for instance) I pose the following question: Which of the Democratic candidates cares about every state? Obama has actively campaigned in every state. He has run a fifty state campaign and fought hard for every vote, even if they were in what Hillary calls “insignificant†states. On Super Tuesday she worried only about New York, California, New Jersey and Arkansas. The other states didn’t count, she thought. Even now she has her surrogates out saying that those twenty states Obama has won in don’t count, really, because other than Illinois they aren’t significant.
Is your state significant? Is your vote? Obama thinks so.
Here ends today’s political rhetoric.
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