Nathan Tyree: Red States
This morning Clinton Surrogates are busy playing the self pity and sexism cards while simultaneously attempting to move the goal posts. Depending on which Clinton flack you listen to either Obama has to win landslides in TX, VT, OH and RI or get out, or Hillary simply has to still be breathing after Tuesday to stay in. I have to wonder how the Clinton team would be talking if Obama was in the position she is in ? If Obama needed to take 70% in every remaining state to achieve a tie, I think that they would demand that he pull out gracefully. She can no longer win, and yet she will not stop. She’s fear mongering and using Rovian tactics while trying to change the rules mid-game. She’s got the endorsement of The Joker, which seems somehow fitting at this point. My worst fear is that she will force this to the convention, use the Clinton connections to slime the Florida and Michigan delegates into play, cute some sort of deal with super delegates and destroy the party while stealing the nomination. I hope that this fear is unfounded.
What happens on Tuesday?
I've always believed that looking at a single poll, while entertaining, isn't truly useful. The method I like to use is as follows: Each time a new poll is released for a state I calculate the average of the four most recent polls then graph that. The trend line generated shows me very clearly how the electorate is moving. Then, after the state in question votes I compare the results to the prediction generated by my calculations. This cycle has been interesting because Obama seems to always finish better than the polls suggested he would. Often the swing is well outside the margin of error. I think that this is largely due to incredible voter turnout and the youth vote.
I've been going over my numbers for Texas and Ohio. The trend in both states is clear. Now, I recognize that HRC does very well among voters who fail to decide until the day they vote, so adjusting for the slight downturn we should see in Obama’s numbers for that I predict that he wins Texas around 55% 44% and Ohio is a razor thin margin. OH likely ends with an Obama victory with a margin of 1% or less. Vermont goes strongly in the Obama column, and Rhode Island goes in Clinton’s.
John McCain has noticed that Hillary is finished and started to campaign against Obama. This will be an exciting match up. I’m ready to make an unorthodox prediction right now: in the general Obama will win some red states (Kansas, for instance, is in play- hell, even Texas is sort of in play). Obama’s greatest strength is that he can truly compete in places that no other Democrat can.
This morning Clinton Surrogates are busy playing the self pity and sexism cards while simultaneously attempting to move the goal posts. Depending on which Clinton flack you listen to either Obama has to win landslides in TX, VT, OH and RI or get out, or Hillary simply has to still be breathing after Tuesday to stay in. I have to wonder how the Clinton team would be talking if Obama was in the position she is in ? If Obama needed to take 70% in every remaining state to achieve a tie, I think that they would demand that he pull out gracefully. She can no longer win, and yet she will not stop. She’s fear mongering and using Rovian tactics while trying to change the rules mid-game. She’s got the endorsement of The Joker, which seems somehow fitting at this point. My worst fear is that she will force this to the convention, use the Clinton connections to slime the Florida and Michigan delegates into play, cute some sort of deal with super delegates and destroy the party while stealing the nomination. I hope that this fear is unfounded.
What happens on Tuesday?
I've always believed that looking at a single poll, while entertaining, isn't truly useful. The method I like to use is as follows: Each time a new poll is released for a state I calculate the average of the four most recent polls then graph that. The trend line generated shows me very clearly how the electorate is moving. Then, after the state in question votes I compare the results to the prediction generated by my calculations. This cycle has been interesting because Obama seems to always finish better than the polls suggested he would. Often the swing is well outside the margin of error. I think that this is largely due to incredible voter turnout and the youth vote.
I've been going over my numbers for Texas and Ohio. The trend in both states is clear. Now, I recognize that HRC does very well among voters who fail to decide until the day they vote, so adjusting for the slight downturn we should see in Obama’s numbers for that I predict that he wins Texas around 55% 44% and Ohio is a razor thin margin. OH likely ends with an Obama victory with a margin of 1% or less. Vermont goes strongly in the Obama column, and Rhode Island goes in Clinton’s.
John McCain has noticed that Hillary is finished and started to campaign against Obama. This will be an exciting match up. I’m ready to make an unorthodox prediction right now: in the general Obama will win some red states (Kansas, for instance, is in play- hell, even Texas is sort of in play). Obama’s greatest strength is that he can truly compete in places that no other Democrat can.
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