[ Ventilation ] | Time to Predict

11-01-2008 6:09 pm

Nathan Tyree: Time to Predict

I'm going to lay out my electoral prediction for the Presidential race. Before I do that I want to take a moment to look at how Obama could get to the required 270 electoral votes. It seems almost certain that Obama wins all of the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico. That collection of states equals 164 electoral votes (EV), just six short. To win, Obama only needs to hold on to one of the following: VA (13), NC (15), OH (20), FL (27), IN (11), MO (11), GA (15), or NV (5) + one of the Dakotas (3 each) or Montana (3). To win, McCain has to run the board.

I have changed my prediction at the last minute, do to some minor changes in polls and the effect of Ron Paul in Montana.

Now here's my prediction:

Comments (15)

captpicard - ("I aim to misbehave" Capt Reynolds (Serenity))

I'm going to assume that red is republican. With that in mind your map is a little off because the chances of Mccain winning florida I think are about as likely as California

Nathan Tyree - (Overwhelmed by existential angst)

Good to see you, Captain. I think FL has structural issues that benefit McCain. As such, I have believed all season that if Florida is close at the end, then it goes to McCain. I hope that I'm wrong.

2-HeadedGiraffe - (*(..)*)

Because I don't want to do the math...who wins in your prediction? It sounds favorable to Obama from your statement, and I'm assuming your numbers show that, but I'm not counting everything up at this moment.

captpicard - ("I aim to misbehave" Capt Reynolds (Serenity))

I think that Obama will win unfortunetley(sp). My only hope is that we don't go to far left.

David - ()

Why? What's over there that worries you?

Nathan Tyree - (Overwhelmed by existential angst)

Yes. My map is a decisive Obama win.

captpicard - ("I aim to misbehave" Capt Reynolds (Serenity))

I'll keep it simple. A total lack of any sort of morals at all. People say that a world without religion is so much better than one with religion, however history proves different.
I am just curious what particular policies of Obama's do you support? Because while I have heard plenty of Mccain supporters talk about his policies I have yet to really hear anything concrete on Obama's

Nathan Tyree - (Overwhelmed by existential angst)

Obama's policies? Ending the war in Iraq, improvements to the healthcare system, a better system of taxation, his plan to create "green" jobs (and lessen our need for foreign oil), and others.

What exactly leads you to believe that those of us on the left lack morals?

captpicard - ("I aim to misbehave" Capt Reynolds (Serenity))

lets see. rampant sexual activity outside of marriage, not only condoning but encouraging homosexuality and attempting to completely supress anyone who dares disagree, condoms being handed out at school. Telling people that whatever you want to believe is correct for you and if anyone dares disagree well they are just bigoted and intolerant. Thats just a few big ones

Nathan Tyree - (Overwhelmed by existential angst)

wow

David - ()

Thank you. I just laughed harder than I have in a long time.

Have you read 1984? Twice?

Nathan Tyree - (Overwhelmed by existential angst)

oh fucking hell. nosed my coffee

Demannu - (<--- Eats Worms)

oh dear. the audacity of telling people they can believe what they want to. that's just horrible. I hope someone comes along and does something about this. I'm concerned.
rampant sexual activity outside of marriage? That too is... wait. no. I like that one.

captpicard - ("I aim to misbehave" Capt Reynolds (Serenity))

Hey Demannu I am not saying you can't believe what you want, you want to believe that the whole universe was sneezed into exsistance well go ahead. My point was that alot of left wing groups try to stop those of us who disagree from being able to disagree with them

Demannu - (<--- Eats Worms)

"sneezed into existance" sounds more like YOUR beliefs. I however do NOT believe in anything. I simply don't know. A (without) theism (belief) Once given ample empirical proof, I would be happy to consider your God. But until then, I refuse to believe something just because I read it somewhere.

Your account has been disabled.

Lyric

I've got a bad liver and a broken heart

User Journals

Poker Face by David
Consecutive Good Decisions from the Big N by fuzmeister
We Are At War With Eastasia by David
Nothing I Can Say To Make Them Happy by David
I'm Feeling It Too, Guys by fuzmeister
Feel more sick every day. by toodldo_4julie
Bond is Dead by David
Jesus tapdancing Christ on a pogo stick by Brandon
I am tired by Brandon
Another New Year by fuzmeister

Active Users List

Your Hosts

Brandon's Journal
Beowulf's Journal
Vikki's Journal

Links

Mr Overby
Not Work Safe
Nate's E-Books
Mr Overby Recedes
The Bookmunch Interview
Magazine of the Dead
Magazine of the Dead On-Line
The Flash